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Product details
File Size: 1124 KB
Print Length: 520 pages
Page Numbers Source ISBN: 0199392005
Publisher: Oxford University Press; 1 edition (December 1, 2014)
Publication Date: December 1, 2014
Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B00P9JTQL6
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Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor at UC-Berkeley, is a scholar of the first order on The Great Depression. His “Golden Fetters†on how the operation of the gold standard during the inter-war years was a significant cause of The Great Depression is a classic. He argues in the Keynesian tradition on what the crisis managers of 2008 learned, perhaps too well, the lessons of 1929-33. Thus readers who prefer the views of James Grant’s “Forgotten Depression…†will differ greatly with this history.The analogues between the 1920’s and 30’s with the 2000’s are many. Here are only a few highlighted by Eichengreen:• Bernie Madoff was the equivalent of Charles Ponzi.• The Euro of today works the way the gold standard of the 20’s worked.• The bailout of the Dawes Bank (Central Republic Trust) was similar to the Bear Stearns bailout.• Letting Lehman fail was analogous to the moral hazard issue associated with allowing the Ford controlled Guardian Group of Banks to fail in 1933.• There were real estate booms in both eras.The lessons our modern day policy makers learned were to flood the system with liquidity, bailout the banks, engage in fiscal stimulus policies, avoid protectionism and avoid debacles like the London Economic Conference of 1933 through international cooperation. However, unlike the 1930s the problem in the system was not really in the banks, but rather in the shadow banking system that grew up in the 1990’s and reached full adulthood in the 2000’s.Perhaps more important instead of four years of grinding lower in the 1930’s the economy began to recover after two years and most governments and central banks began to pull back on stimulus policies which in Eichengreen’s opinion is the reason for the slow growth the global economy has experienced since 2010. Further by preventing another Great Depression the impetus to fully reform the financial system waned and we ended up with a watered down version of financial reform with Dodd-Frank. Eichengreen is a reformer in the Polanyi tradition. Unfortunately as Keynes contemporaneously noted reform is the enemy of recovery. Reform took place in the 1930’s because the old order collapsed, but as many have noted the New Deal reforms delayed recovery. Even Eichengreen concedes that National Industrial Recovery Act of 1933 was an economic disaster.In reading Eichengreen’s book one has to sympathize with the policy makers of the early Great Depression. They were operating in real time with inadequate information, much as Bernanke et al were doing in 2008. Eichengreen is sympathetic to New York Fed President George Harrison’s “direct pressure†approach to the stock market boom which he characterizes as an early version of “macro-prudential†policies. Unfortunately “macro-prudential†policies have yet to be tested and I suspect they might have failed in the 2000’s in halting the sup-prime mortgage boom. Why? The policy makers would have been accused of racism by preventing Blacks and Latinos from buying homes.I have a few factual quibbles with the book. He understates the role of Hoover Treasury Secretary Ogden Mills in being the true author of Roosevelt’s early banking reforms; he fails to note the importance of the fiscal drag or tax on labor, depending on your point of view, of the introduction of Social Security taxes in 1936 without benefits being paid out until 1939. Remember at the time social security was not included in the federal budget. Lastly he sometimes confuses being long a credit default swap with being short the swap.All told Eichengreen has written an excellent book, especially The Great Depression portion. However, because it is probably too long and towards the end he pontificates too much on the Europe of the past years, which is too recent for real history, I give the book four stars not five.
I held off writing this review until I had read the book thoroughly, an essential precaution I'm pretty sure several of the other reviewers have not taken. It's particularly important here because Eichengreen is making a very rich and nuanced case that cannot be distilled into a simple theoretically pure thesis. If you don't read it all, you're going to miss something important.I have read many other books and articles about the Great Depression and the Great Recession, but I nevertheless found much that was new and illuminating in Eichengreen's treatment here. I've recently re-read his earlier Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939 (Nber Series on Long-Term Factors in Economic Development) which I feel is the best single stand-alone economic analysis of the Great Depression. (No, I'm not a committed true believer in "real business cycle" theories, or in liquidationism for that matter; if you are you probably won't like this book very well.) I'm not about to throw away my copy of Golden Fetters, which goes more deeply into some important details, but if you can only read one book on either the Great Depression or the Great Recession then Hall of Mirrors is the choice.The great strength of the book lies in Eichengreen's masterful use of the comparative method of analysis, for he shows that considering both cycles in the same frame yields insights not to be gained from examining either alone. His method permits him to explain many features of each that would otherwise be quite puzzling.Eichengreen is an economic historian rather than a theorist. There isn't an equation in the book; he has deliberately avoided abstract theorizing both to appeal to a broader audience and to assure a more complete and comprehensive perspective. I have no doubt that what he is saying will stimulate both theoretical and econometric work, some perhaps from his own pen. But this is the right place to start.Early in the book, on page 9, Eichengreen says, "Where Keynes relied mainly on narrative methods, his followers used mathematics to verify their intuitions. Eventually those mathematics took on a life of their own. Latter-day academics embraced models of representative, rational, forward-looking agents in part for their tractability, in part for their elegance. In models of rational agents efficiently maximizing everything, little can go wrong unless government makes it go wrong." Which is a polite way of saying that economists of this stripe take "government" as a word of art, referring not to any actual institution but to the sum of "irrational" forces that they cannot model, or choose not to. If you are one such I suggest not reading this book, which will only bewilder and annoy you.But if you are genuinely interested in understanding the Great Depression and Great Recession and have no fixed preconceived notions then I thoroughly recommend this book.
Professor Eichengreen has done a masterful job comparing the Great Depression and the most recent financial crisis in both the United States and in Europe. He clearly describes the historic origins of both events along with the often confused (and sometimes counterproductive) official responses. His conclusion that the modest success of the most recent interventions prevented deeper thinking and more profound reforms rings true for me.
I have read several books on both the Great Depression and the Great Recession and this counts as one of the best for both and certainly the best for making comparisons, of which, as the author explains there are many. The book is written in a clear and easily accessible style. I particularly enjoyed the author's description of how his research on the Great Recession changed his view on the Great Depression (greater understanding for the policy uncertainty the decision makers were under). In classic Eichengreen style, the author asks whether an explanation also work in another time period or another country, which helps refine the argument. I learned a lot of new things in this book and I am looking forward to re-reading it soon.
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